Liberation Day | Sentencing Row | Tough on Immigration

Charles Fletcher
April 4, 2025
8
min read
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Flapping Furious: King penguins on the Heard and McDonald Islands respond to the news that they've been hit by the US tariffs, despite no human having visited in nearly a decade © Johner Images / Alamy Stock Photo

Driving the Week

Liberation ‘Make America Wealthy Again’ Day took place on Wednesday in what free market economies around the world hoped was a late and very elaborate April Fool’s Joke. The day when “American industry was reborn”, according to the US President… sent the US stock market plummeting to its lowest level since August last year, in the fastest drop since Covid in 2020. The UK got off lightly compared to most other nations with the US President allocating just a 10% rate on UK goods entering the US, compared to 20% on the EU, 26% on India and 34% on China. British politicians on all sides attempted to claim the “win” either by [delete as appropriate] celebrating the “Brexit dividend” / Keir Starmer’s charm offensive. In comments to the press on Air Force One on Thursday, Trump said Keir Starmer is “very happy” with how he’s treated the UK in the giant tariff bingo game. Nobody tell the President this isn’t quite the line being taken in London...

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds delivered a statement to MPs on the tariffs on Thursday, continuing the Government’s softly, softly, don’t poke the bear approach, in which he launched a request for input from UK businesses on the implications of “possible retaliatory action”. He insisted this was a formal step, necessary to keep all options on the table and reiterated the need to “keep calm and remain clear eyed on what is in our national interest” as the UK Government pins its hopes on reaching a speedy trade agreement with the US. The PM also responded at a meeting of business leaders in Downing Street to state the UK was “prepared”, but that “nobody wins in a trade war”, and whilst “nothing is off the table”, stressed his intention to drive forward a trade deal with the US and work to promote further growth in the UK.

The Week in Stats

5 – Number of years Keir Starmer has been the Leader of the Labour Party, longer than Cornyn, Miliband and Brown.  

£2.29bn – Amount local authorities in England spend on temporary accommodation in 2023-24.

200 million – Number of passengers Ryanair flew in a year, the first European airline to do so in a single year.

50% – US tariff placed on Lesotho, a country of 2.2 million people that is known for exporting diamonds, garments and wool.

10% – Tariff placed on penguin-run Heard and McDonald islands, the same figure that was placed on the UK.  

In Case You Missed it

‘Two tier’ sentencing will be blocked under new legislation brought in at the last minute this week following criticism of the Sentencing Council’s guidance that was due to come into force this week. Under the guidance, judges were required to take into account pre-sentencing reports for criminals from an ethnic, cultural or faith minority. Following criticism from all parties, the Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, announced emergency legislation to block the guidance, arguing “differential treatment is unacceptable”.

24,000 individuals with no right to be in the UK, have been returned home since the General Election. That was the key message the Prime Minister pushed at the start of the week in his speech to the Organised Immigration Submit on Monday. Keen to flag the Government’s increased efforts on tackling illegal immigration, Starmer noted that the rise in removals includes a 21% increase in enforced returns and a 16% increase in foreign national offenders being removed from the UK since July 5th, including the 4 biggest returns charter flights in the UK’s history, with a total of more than 850 people on board.

You’ve heard of the Red Book, and the Green Book… now it’s time for the Teal Book. The Treasury announced the launch of NISTA – the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority – this week, with the express mission of accelerating the delivery of major government projects, ‘by overcoming barriers and providing expertise on private finance’ and ‘developing and implementing the 10-year infrastructure strategy.' It’s launch comes alongside the publication of an arguably niche colour choice, the new ‘Teal Book’, providing guidance for those working on programmes and portfolios across government.

Russia will come under the enhanced tier of the UK’s Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, the Security Minister announced this week, arguing it "presents an acute threat to UK national security." The move comes as part of confirmation that the scheme will go live on 1 July 2025. The FIRS enhanced tier "enables the government to specify those foreign powers who pose the greatest threat to our society to ensure transparency of a much broader range of activities" than just the political tier, which applies to all states.

It looks like the Strategic Defence Review might be ready for launch – as suggested by an updated biography for the UK’s new Permanent Representative to NATO. Andrew Lapsley’s appointment was announced in February, when it was confirmed he would remain on the SDR review team until its completion; but his updated Government bio this week implies that role has been now been completed.

The Winter of Discontent has well and truly bubbled over into Spring in Birmingham. With 17,000 tonnes of waste piled up on the streets, a major incident has been declared by the City Council, with the Prime Minister calling it “completely unacceptable” during PMQs this week. Strikes and picket lines by Unite union members have prevented refuse vehicles from operating for almost four weeks after the union claimed the Council is instigating a series of heavy pay cuts and demotions across its workforce.

Luton Airport has been granted permission to build a new terminal by the Transport Secretary, which will see the airport’s annual passenger cap increase from 18 million to 32 million within the next 20 years. The move, part of the Government’s plans to unlock the UK’s infrastructure roadblock, will see more than 77,000 more flights take-off or land each year at the airport.

The UK and Australia signed a new partnership on defence technology to develop next-generation sub-systems for low-cost weapons systems. The move will combine the UK’s Modular Weapons Testbed and Australia’s Sharktooth programme and will accelerate the deployment of new capabilities, enhance operability between forces, and reduce development costs and risks through shared expertise.

Highlights from Parliament

As the sun came out and MPs limped towards the Easter recess, the Commons found just enough time to scrutinise 3 pieces of government legislation and 3 statutory instruments, sandwiched around the 4 urgent questions and 4 ministerial statements shoehorned in at the last minute (which totalled a whopping 6.5 hours, or 20% of Parliament’s sitting time this week). Of the Government business discussed this week, the Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education Bill had its report stage and third reading. The Bill began in the Lords and has therefore completed all its planned stages, returning to the Lords after the Easter recess for consideration of amendments made in the Commons, before being sent to Buckingham Palace for signing, most likely in May. The catchily-tiled Non-Domestic Rating (Multipliers and Private Schools) Bill returned to the Commons where MPs were given 2 minutes of additional time to vote to reject all the amendments made in the Lords, as the escalators in Portcullis House were down (go figure). Finally, the equally thrillingly-titled Product Regulations and Metrology Bill passed its second reading in the Commons. Good luck to the MPs who find themselves on that Bill Committee after Easter.

Over in the Lords, peers debated the report stage of the Mental Health Bill, aiming to give mental health patients more control over their treatment. The Bill returns to the Lords Chamber for its third reading after Easter, before then heading to the Commons where it is expected to receive extensive debate. Peers also continued to debate their own make up and – inevitable – future composition through the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill that will see the abolition of the 91 remaining places for hereditary peers in the upper house. After five days of debate in committee stage, the Bill should have its final stages in the Lords after Easter, before returning to the Commons and getting sign off before the summer recess.

Polls and Think Tanks

As he marks his fifth anniversary as Labour leader today, Keir Starmer’s popularity is worse than Ed Miliband’s, and much worse than Tony Blair’s, when they reached the milestone. According to Ipsos’ most recent polling, Starmer has a net satisfaction rating of -34, compared to -19 for Miliband and +10 for Blair. However, he is more popular than Corbyn was, at -49. YouGov appears to concur, with their research showing that 45% of respondents think he is a ‘poor’ or ‘terrible’ leader, compared to 16% who consider him ‘good’ or ‘great’. They also found the public are still unclear about what Starmer stands for: prior to the election, 42% said they had at least a broad idea of what the Labour leader stood for, compared to 33% now.

However, YouGov’s polling on the popularity of leaders in Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden puts this into perspective. They placed Starmer at fourth, with a net favourability rating of -26, above Spain’s Sanchez on -32, Germany’s Scholz on -42 and France’s Macron on a dismal -54. Respondents were also asked about their opinions on the Donald: in Denmark a staggering 94% stated they were unfavourable towards him, compared to 80% in Britain.

It really is ‘Awful April’, according to the Resolution Foundation’s research into this month’s tax, utility bill and social security changes. It found that: the combined impact of the freezing of personal tax thresholds and the increase in employer National Insurance will cost the typical household £170; the rise in council tax will cost households roughly £80; and households will see an average rise of 26% in their water bills. In total, the average non-pensioner household’s income will fall by about £400 this year.

You’ve Got to Laugh

The Government appointed a Minister for Hope, Good Vibes and Positivity this week, with Dawn Butler revealing that the position will sit within the Cabinet Office and work across departments. The list of responsibilities included spreading joy, with Butler to lead legislation through Parliament that ‘requires saying something nice before complaining on social media’. Before you go checking the List of Ministerial Responsibilities, this was announced at 0814 on Tuesday 1st April…  

What happens when you combine an ex-Tory MP, a soprano singer and a Reform UK candidate for Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire? You get a video of Andrea Jenkyns handing in her nomination papers to the backdrop of her singing “there is only one choice, we must unite, as one voice”. The former Education Minister, who was a Conservative candidate in the 2024 general election, joined Reform UK back in November and is hoping to become the first mayor of Greater Lincolnshire. The singing starts halfway through the video…

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