Conclave | Reeves in DC | Brexit Reset

Charles Fletcher
April 25, 2025
8
min read
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Le Grand Reset: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stopped by Number 10 on Thursday to discuss “resetting” UK-EU relations with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. © Martin Evans / Alamy Stock Photo

Driving the Week

Talks with both sides of the Atlantic dominated the Government’s agenda this week. The Chancellor jetted to Washington DC for the IMF summit (which coincided with the IMF downgrading its growth forecasts for the entire G7) to join the queue of global finance ministers seeking a carve-out from the Trump tariff terror. Ahead of her meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today, she indicated the UK could lower tariffs on US car imports to 2.5% as part of a wider deal as she sought to build on positive reports from VP JD Vance last week there was a "good chance" a trade deal could be reached. Cross-Channel talks heralded slightly more hope, as the Prime Minister hosted Ursula von der Leyen in London for a ‘long and productive discussion’ ahead of a summit in May to ‘reset’ relations. Despite Brexit-reminiscent stumbling blocks on migration and fishing quotas, the talks reportedly keep on track the planned timeline for the agreement of a UK-EU defence and security pact, as well as increasing the likelihood of an agreement on a youth migration scheme, despite reported opposition from the Home Office.

The half-baked peace plan for Ukraine appeared to slip further into the grave. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the US was willing to walk away from negotiations if progress was not made, evidencing this by literally walking away from a planned summit in London due to be hosted by David Lammy and attended by France, Germany and Ukraine. In the face of wilting US engagement, the UK appeared to further downgrade its peacekeeping pledges, with reports it plans to drop the commitment to deploy peacekeepers in Ukraine. Following further horrific Russian air strikes on civilians (which Trump labelled only as ‘badly timed) Zelenskyy rejected a US proposal it cede occupied territories and Crimea to Russia, which resulted in Trump accusing him of prolonging the conflict and suggesting he was harder to “deal with” than Putin.

The Week in Stats

£151.9bn – the UK’s provisionally estimated borrowing in 2024/25… £20.7bn more than in the same twelve month period a year earlier.

£1,000 – the amount the Lib Dems are calling for in fines for ‘headphone dodgers’ who play loud music and videos on public transport.

9.6 million – incidents of ‘headline’ crime, which includes theft, robbery, criminal damage, fraud, computer misuse and violence with or without injury… an increase of 14% on the previous year.

£600m – the amount the Post Office has spent to keep using the faulty Horizon IT system, despite deciding to axe it more than a decade ago.

13,000 – the number of people who have viewed Pope Francis’s body at St Peter’s Basilica, as the Vatican makes the final preparations for his funeral on Saturday.

180,000 – the number of primary school pupils across the country who attended the Government’s new free breakfast clubs this week.

In Case You Missed it

Conclave. The Vatican announced on Monday the death of Pope Francis, who made his last public appearance on Easter Sunday – just the day before – in St Peter’s Square. In keeping with his liberal-leaning papacy, he will be buried at the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore as per his wishes, rather than St Peter’s Basilica as is traditional. His funeral will take place on Saturday, attended by leaders from across the world including US President Trump. Cardinal-electors will arrive in Rome to attend the congregation of cardinals, which will see a date and time set for the conclave to elect Francis’ successor.

The international Summit on the Future of Energy Security was convened in London by the Government and the International Energy Agency, where Keir Starmer, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and IEA Director Fatih Birol were among those giving speeches. Ahead of the summit, the PM pledged £300m for GB Energy to invest in offshore wind technology; and during his speech later that day, unveiled a ‘major’ new deal with Eni, which will see the energy company award around £2bn in supply chain contracts for their Liverpool Bay carbon capture and storage projects. The summit also follows on from DESNZ’s announcement earlier this week that the GB Energy Bill will be amended to ensure supply chains are free from forced labour.

A presumption of anonymity is to be granted to firearms officers subject to criminal trials following a shooting, the Government table announced this week, in an amendment to their Crime and Policing Bill. Anonymity will apply during court proceedings and in media reporting up until the point of conviction. This comes as the Home Office also announced new measures have been laid in Parliament to make passing background checks a legal requirement for all serving officers, and to create a new process to enable forces to remove officers who do not meet the vetting requirement.

Robert Jenrick vowed to “bring this coalition together” to ensure the Conservative Party and Reform UK are no longer competing for votes by the next General Election, according to a leaked recording obtained by Sky News. Perhaps forgetting that he didn’t actually win the Tory leadership contest, Jenrick’s comments come in contrast to (actual leader) Kemi Badenoch’s stance that she would not do a deal with Reform. Yet, Jenrick was quick to backtrack, as he later insisted he is on the same page as Badenoch and he wants to ‘put Reform out of business.’ Sounds keen to keep any backroom dealings quiet until he’s actually in charge of the Party.

With less than a week to go until the local elections on 1 May, it looks like the Conservatives are unlikely to recover from their last election defeat, while Reform are poised to make significant gains. 1,641 council seats and six mayoral positions are up for grabs, with polling showing both Labour and Reform hold 25% of national voting intention. It marks the first set of elections since Labour swept to power last summer. The Runcorn and Helsby by-election will also take place on the same date, following Mike Amesbury’s resignation… all eyes are on Labour’s current 15,000 majority!

Men’s health is on the agenda, as the Government launched a call for evidence to inform England’s first ever men’s health strategy, aiming to close the life expectancy gap between men and women. The call for evidence will look at prevention, diagnosis and treatment, and encouraging men to come forward.

Ofcom released a major policy statement for the protection of children online, which sets out how it expects tech platforms to prevent children from encountering 'legal but harmful' content online. In its finalised Codes of Practice, the measures aim to create safer feeds, effective age checks, faster action, more choice and support for children, make it easier to report content, and strengthen governance.

New laws under the Water (Special Measures) Act came into force today, meaning that water executives who cover up or hide illegal sewage can now face up to two years in prison. Additionally, new powers will mean that polluters will pay for the cost of criminal investigations into wrongdoing.

Highlights from Parliament

After two weeks off, Parliament returned this week, with the Sentencing Guidelines (Pre-sentence Reports) Bill’s second reading. Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood explained the “emergency legislation” had been introduced to ensure that judges do not take into account an offender's race, religion, or other personal characteristics when deciding on pre-sentence reports. Also in the Commons, the Lib Dems went full Lib Dem and chose the topics of hospitals and sewage for their two opposition debates on Wednesday, while Defence Secretary John Healey gave the House an update on Ukraine and the ongoing efforts to secure a ceasefire and “peace in the long term”.

Over in the Lords, Peers spent over 9 hours debating the Renters’ Rights Bill this week, as its committee stage continued. In a legislation heavy week for the Lords, the Tobacco and Vapes Bill passed its second reading, and the Mental Health Bill completed its passage and has been sent to the House of Commons. With today a sitting Friday, they’ve also been given the opportunity to debate three reports from Select Committees, on the topics of national debt, the future of news, and ‘enhancing public trust’.

Polls and Think Tanks

Another week, another wobble for Labour, as Ipsos’ latest polling shows the party’s favourability ratings have slipped once again, marking yet another entry in which is fast becoming a weekly tradition. This month only 23% of Britons had a favourable view of the PM, with just over half unfavourable, giving him a net approval rating of -29. To compare, in March his net rating was -17. The Labour Party fares a similar fate (down 6 percentage points) and with local elections next week Labour will be hoping that this latest dip isn’t the political equivalent of tripping at the finish line. Nigel Farage and the Reform party, meanwhile, will be watching from the sidelines as their ratings continue to top the leaderboards, with Farage at 29% and Reform UK at 28% favourability respectively.

Public Anxiety over energy prices remains sky-high, according to Ipsos polling with 88% of Britons expressing concern about current energy costs. Worries around energy security also remain prominent, with 77% uneasy about the UK’s dependence on energy imports, however, there’s been a slight decline in fears of supply disruptions, down from 83% in 2022 to 72% today. The poll found that attitudes to investing in renewable energy and improving energy efficiency in homes and businesses remains positive (76% each) and almost half of Britons would support further investment into nuclear energy. Support for the construction of new clean energy infrastructure is not quite as popular, with only 40% backing projects that would cost the taxpayer more or require building on greenfield sites.

School exclusions hit a new record high, according to a report by the Centre for Social Justice out this week. Data released by the Department of Education shows that there were nearly 300,000 suspensions in Spring 2024 – up 12% on the previous year, making it a new Spring term record. Just over 3,000 of those exclusions were permanent, another record and another increase from Spring 2023. The CSJ research has discovered that children from low-income households or with special educational needs are more likely to be excluded, with boys more than twice as likely to be permanently excluded than girls.

You’ve Got to Laugh

It’s officially Taurus season and there was celebration for spring birthdays in the Commons this week, as everyone’s favourite Westminster pooch, Steve Darling MP’s guide dog Jennie, turned 6 on Tuesday. Marking the occasion, the Prime Minister used PMQs as an opportunity to wish her a belated happy birthday. In true Opposition style however, Jennie did not seem the least bit interested in what the Government has to say as she remained… asleep… through the whole exchange. Though we can’t blame her for wanting to sleep through PMQs

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