Deterrent: The Prime Minister and Defence Sec visit Barrow-in-Furness shipyard on Thursday, a few days after secretly boarding one of the UK’s nuclear submarines this weekend © PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo
Welfare reform took centre stage this week as Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced the Government’s benefits-cutting package, which aims to save £5bn a year. With welfare spending expected to reach around £319bn this year, the Government’s new Green Paper outlined three key priorities: focusing on prevention and early intervention, restoring trust in the benefit system, and delivering personalised support to those unable to work. The most contentious proposals, and the one that is most likely to majorly upset Labour’s backbenchers, concerned Personal Independence Payments (PIPs), which support individuals with long-term health conditions. The Government plans to review PIP assessments and tighten eligibility criteria, with estimates suggesting that around a million people will lose their benefits. Many of Labour’s own have voiced opposition to this announcement, as Dudley’s Labour Group Leader resigned from the party, while Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham urged that “great caution” is taken “on how changes are made”.
Prime Minister Keir attempted to continue to lead from the front on Ukraine, warning Putin will face “severe consequences” if he breaches any peace agreement. The Prime Minister hosted further meetings with members of a potential ‘Coalition of the Willing’ last weekend, where he announced preparation for a peacekeeping force in Ukraine had moved to the “operational” phase. This was followed by a convention of senior military leaders in London on Thursday, after which Starmer appeared to row back on his strongest commitments to the deployment of British troops, instead emphasising the provision of air and sea support. Europe continued to be undercut by President Trump, however, who held a direct call with Putin and managed to get him to only agree to a 30-day pause on strikes on energy infrastructure (the White House spun the call as a success, although Ukraine said Russia broke the promise almost immediately). Putin also demanded that the West suspend all direct miliary support for Ukraine as part of any peace agreement, which is likely to drive a further wedge between Europe and the USA. US representatives will meet with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia on Monday to progress negotiations.
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch kicked off her local election campaign this week with a speech in St Pancras proclaiming that net zero by 2050 is impossible, with it either leading to a serious drop in living standards or bankrupting the country. Whilst the Opposition leader stressed that the speech was not made on some moral ground and that the need for clean energy was still apparent, her criticism of the Labour Party’s “zealots who have highjacked the agenda” was clearly more of a turning point for the Conservative’s own agenda on net zero than we have seen before and perhaps an indication of what’s to come.
Coined by Badenoch as the first in a series of policy renewals, the shift on the green agenda is a far cry from David Cameron’s push to make the Conservatives the ‘greenest Government ever’ just over 10 years ago. Five Conservative Party leaders; one legally binding international treaty on climate change; a tangible target for net zero enshrined into law; a war in Ukraine; a cost of living crisis; and several billions of pounds of investment into energy later and the party, although they wouldn’t admit it, has U-turned. So how exactly did we get to this point in such a short amount of time?
NB: While the focus here is on net zero specifically, it would be remiss to talk about the Conservative’s policy on energy and climate without mentioning Thatcher, who pioneered issues of climate, essentially legitimising the green agenda into mainstream UK politics.
Back to the 21st Century and the Cameron years of the Conservative Government was a bit of a rocky time for energy and climate policy. Undeniable achievements include the participation in the drafting of the Paris Agreement, the establishment of the Green Investment Bank, the introduction of a minimum floor price for carbon and the introduction of the Energy Act 2013 bringing in investments into decarbonisation. However, Cameron’s assertion to ‘cut the green crap’ in 2013 led to a decline and watering down of climate policy. Cuts to renewables and energy efficiency schemes were authorised, as fracking was prioritised to create jobs and save money.
Post the Brexit vote and Theresa May must be commended for becoming the first leader of a mainstream economy to sign net zero into law and on introducing a ban on fracking. Though, with all the focus on leaving the European Union, the net zero agenda was very much on the backburner during her premiership. However, now Baroness May, has taken to X this week to show her continued support for net zero targets, believing they are ‘challenging but achievable.’
Onto the next PM and it was Boris Johnson who was in Number 10 when the historic COP26 happened in Glasgow, with the Government at the time producing a Net Zero Strategy, including targets on offshore wind and a decline in petrol cars. Continuing on from the legal targets signed by May, Johnson did a good job at bringing conversations around net zero into the political narrative. However, his rhetoric and talk of greener policies was very much plagued by omissions, underinvestment, a fragile time for the British Government in general, and a lack of clear strategy, meaning that the foundations on net zero laid by Johnson were not strong enough to withstand his successor.
It was the 49 day Prime Minister that led to the biggest change in rhetoric for the Conservative Party’s view on net zero with, predictably, the Mini Budget. The rise of the right wing discourse within the Party meant that net zero became an issue of political agenda instead of a problem for the country, perfectly demonstrated by Truss’ fixation to lift the fracking ban. This paired with the economic instability that resulted from the Mini Budget meant that net zero fell right down the agenda.
Taking over in a time of huge economic uncertainty, Sunak definitely saw net zero as a chore to complete rather than an opportunity. With no coherent strategy for reaching net zero, and a newly formed Department for Energy Security and Net Zero which repeatedly stressed the need for domestic oil and gas, even when the country reaches zero emissions, there was clearly no ambition. This was evidenced by the resignation of key environmental figure Lord Goldsmith from Government, due to the Government’s ‘apathy’ towards environmental issues. Distaste for energy policy culminated for Sunak in Autumn 2023, when he announced a weakening on some key net zero policies, including extending the deadline for when gas boilers and petrol cars were to be banned. At a time where the economy was unstable; the war in Ukraine was causing gas prices to be high; and the Conservative Party was rapidly declining, it seemed that Sunak had more pressing issues on his mind.
It is therefore hardly surprising that Badenoch has made the decision to base the first of her policy renewals on attacking the net zero agenda as bills are still high and, even more so with the recent election of Reform MPs, net zero is seen as one of the top political battlegrounds for the left and right to argue over. Pair that with a Secretary of State who is very much set in his ways on climate policy, and it is an easy win for the Opposition to attack. This is particularly pertinent given that some key green Conservative MPs stepped down or resigned in the last election, leaving the righter side of the Party to reign. Badenoch is yet to announce an alternative route she sees fit to replace the net zero goals, and has not really addressed the legal implications of the targets, so it is unlikely this issue will be sidelined any time soon.
4.5% – Inflation rate after the Bank of England voted to keep rates on hold, with a cut likely in May
4.4% – Unemployment rate in the three months to January, with the economic inactivity rate at 21.5%
£10.7bn – UK Government borrowing in February, with the deficit higher than economists predicted
20,000 – Number of Government credit cards being cancelled as part of plans to cut spending
29 – Councillors that have defected to Reform UK in recent weeks
5 – Days until the Chancellor’s first Spring Statement
The Chancellor is bracing for the Spring Statement next Wednesday after the OBR reported that borrowing was over £4bn higher than it expected in February. At PMQs, Kemi Badenoch invited the Prime Minister to repeat the Chancellor’s previous pledge to unfreeze income tax thresholds, which he did not. It is expected that deep cuts will be made (reportedly by up to 7% in some departments), despite Labour’s general election pledge that there would be no return to austerity. The Chancellor also unveiled an action plan to cut the administrative cost of regulation on business by a quarter in an effort to shunt growth upwards.
The Prime Minister took a deep dive ahead of meeting European leaders when he boarded a nuclear submarine as it returned to UK waters on Monday, the first Prime Minister to do so since 2013. The secret trip was followed up later in the week with a wider trip to Barrow to lay the keel on the first next generation submarine and announce the King has agreed to confer the ‘Royal’ title to the Port of Barrow in recognition of its critical contribution to national security.
Kemi Badenoch dropped her party’s commitment to net zero by 2050, arguing it was both “impossible” and costing the country too much (see below). Separately, she also warned the Conservatives faced "extremely difficult" local elections on 1 May.
The National Minimum and National Living wage will increase from 1 April, with the National Living Wage rising by 6.7% to £12.21 per hour, equivalent to £1,400 a year.
200 schools and 200 NHS sites are set to see rooftop solar installed in Great British Energy’s first major project. The first panels are expected to be in schools and hospitals by the end of summer 2025, saving schools money for the next academic year.
The Government’s plans regarding dangerous cladding are ‘insufficiently ambitious and at risk of not delivering what is promised’ warned the Public Accounts Committee. It criticised how, eight years on from Grenfell, the Government still does not know how many buildings have dangerous cladding, how much it will cost to address, or how long it will take.
The Cabinet Office froze almost 20,000 government credit cards as part of plans to cut spending. A strict new application process will be introduced, with departments told to approve the minimum number of new cards possible, in order to reduce the total number of cards by at least 50%.
The UK Pesticides National Action Plan was unveiled, which aims to reduce the risk from environmental pesticides by 10% over the next five years. It also aims to encourage uptake of Integrated Pest Management and strengthen compliance and promote good practice through training, guidance and enhanced inspections and enforcement.
Israel resumed bombing of Gaza as the fragile ceasefire collapsed. Over 400 people died in one day as Israel conducted air and missile strikes across the strip, having already blocked aid supplies at the beginning of the month. Hamas retaliated with missile launches aimed at Tel Aviv. In the House of Commons, Foreign Secretary David Lammy was forced to clarify that the UK still believed Israel was at “clear risk of breaching” international humanitarian law, having said earlier this week he believed it was already in “breach” of IHL.
The Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill was the Government’s latest catch-all piece of legislation passing through the Commons this week, designed to centralise and homogenise many school decisions including teacher training conditions, pay and the curriculum. The Bill should sail through Parliament; but the Government were left fending off criticism from the last head of Ofsted this week when she came out to oppose the “significant reversal” of the autonomy schools have been progressively given over the past 20 years, arguing the Government are putting “unions and unions members ahead of children”. The Government were also left on a sticky wicket on Wednesday when they whipped Labour MPs to vote to remove a Lords’ amendment to the National Insurance Contributions Bill that exempted health and social care providers from the latest NIC increase, with industry leaders calling it a “devasting blow” to the embattled sector.
Over on the red benches, the Lords spent another day considering amendments to the Football Governance Bill and began the report stage of the thrillingly titled Non-Domestic Rating (Multipliers and Private Schools) Bill. They also rattled through all the stages of the Finance Bill without amendment or vote as is tradition; although at times the debate felt more like the sort of “you wrecked the economy, no you wrecked the economy” slanging match more often seen in the Commons.
The British public remain deeply pessimistic about the state of the economy ahead of the Chancellor’s upcoming Spring Statement, according to new research by Ipsos which found that economic optimism is at its lowest level since December 2022. The polling shows that 76% of Brits believe the economy is currently in a poor state and 60% expect the economy to still be in a poor state in a year’s time. When asked what they want to hear at the Statement, 75% of respondents say it is important to hear the Chancellor talk about Labour’s plans for improving public services; whilst 50% are fearful about how announcements might impact their personal financial situation.
Only by achieving at least a 5% share of national electricity distribution in the 2030s will GB Energy succeed in fulfilling the Government’s aim of lowering energy bills, so says a new IPPR report looking into Great British Energy’s role in the green transition. It urges the Government to stick to the ‘original ambition’ of its plans for GBE in order to deliver the step change in the energy market promised ahead of the election. It also suggests GBE should generate electricity from its own assets and be able to borrow independently after 2030, as it highlights that the public remain strongly supportive of the Government’s energy plans.
Meanwhile, Onward released a report exploring what Conservative target voters really think about climate and the environment, which argues that ‘rowing back on climate ambitions will not only alienate Labour and Liberal Democrat switchers and other Conservatives, it will also fail to win back Reform switchers as they place far more electoral importance on immigration.’
Parliament nearly saw a shocking defection this week, as Steve Darling’s guide dog Jennie was seen crossing the floor in the House of Commons to go and greet Labour MPs. As tails wagged over what this would mean for Parliament’s favourite pup, Lib Dem Chief Whip Wendy Chamberlain swiftly put the story to bed, sharing pictures of their super important meeting in which Jennie paw-mised to ‘stay loyal to the Lib Dems’.
Politics can be a truly frustrating world, and Labour’s frontbencher Alison McGovern demonstrated that this week with a genuine *facepalm* moment in the House of Commons. While Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately gave the Conservatives’ response to the Government’s welfare reforms, McGovern can be seen hitting her head into her folder. We’ve all been there before…
Next week’s a big week for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, but she’ll be hoping her Spring Statement is more accurate than the resignation letter she received from Mike Amesbury this week. In his final act as an MP, requesting the Chancellor appoint him ‘Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern’ (the antiquated and frankly ludicrous way MPs have to resign), the former Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby managed to misspell Reeves’ name…
