Investment Cheers | Budget Fears | Hereditary Peers

Charles Fletcher
October 18, 2024
10
min read
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Money Money Money: Rachel Reeves makes her keynote speech at the International Investment Summit in London this week © PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

Driving the Week

£63bn of investment was announced at the Government’s International Investment Summit: expected to create nearly 38,000 UK jobs. Addressing the Summit, Keir Starmer declared that “private sector investment is the way we rebuild our country”, with investments including £6.3bn in UK data centres, £8bn for carbon capture clusters and £1.3bn in new green infrastructure. The Chancellor also addressed the Summit, announcing that the UK Infrastructure Bank will now operate as the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to “catalyse tens of billions of pounds of private investment into in the UK’s clean energy and growth industries”, with the Government set to bring forward legislation to give the NWF a broader mandate than just infrastructure. Alongside the Summit, the Government published an Industrial Strategy Green Paper which sets out eight ‘growth-driving’ sectors that will be prioritised: advanced manufacturing; clean energy industries; creative industries; defence; digital and technologies; life sciences; financial services; and professional and business services. A public consultation was also launched to inform the development of the new Industrial Strategy, with the final version due to be published in Spring 2025.

The Chancellor revealed that restoring fiscal stability will be at the centre of her first Budget, pledging to create a tax system which “supports wealth creation and increases business investment” but warned decisions ahead “will not always be easy”. On Monday, Rachel Reeves gave her clearest signal yet that businesses will face an increase in employer National Insurance Contributions after stating that Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase NI on “working people” related to the employee element. Reeves also reportedly intends to increase Inheritance Tax and Capital Gains Tax as part of plans to address the £40bn funding gap. With just 12 days to go, several cabinet ministers including Housing Sec and Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Transport Sec Louise Haigh and Justice Sec Shabana Mahmood are said to have written to the Prime Minister to express concerns over the scale of cuts their departments may face as a result of the gap, calling for a last-minute rethink of the Budget.

Private Members’ Bills – Privately Progressive?

This week saw the introduction of this parliamentary session’s Private Members’ Bills (PMB) that were drawn by lot. A PMB involves a backbench MP proposing legislation. Its opposite, a Public Bill, is the standard form of legislation that constitutes most lawmaking. Most PMBs do not have parliamentary time allocated to them (unlike government bills, as the government sets the agenda) and their narrow scope means the vast majority of them fail. An MP can propose a PMB at any time, but the only realistic way to see a PMB succeed is to be drawn at the top of the PMB ballot – a parliamentary procedure which appears somewhat nonsensical and theatrical, but can have huge ramifications (and is watched closely by lobbyists, campaign groups and charities in case a friendly MP lucks out).

This year, a process which does not normally attract much public attention has made headlines, as Kim Leadbeater MP, the winner of the draw, announced her intention to put forward a Bill to legalise assisted dying. This was reportedly on the wishes of the Prime Minister, who is personally in favour but has admitted that such a controversial topic would require a ‘free vote’ for MPs, and thus was not appropriate as a government bill. As such, this quirk of lawmaking might see a huge and controversial change made through a ‘private’ bill proposed by a single MP. However, there is precedent for this – the post-war UK has seen major social changes, often in areas that other countries like America are still wrangling with, achieved through PMBs, including the abolition of the death penalty, the legalisation of abortion and the decriminalisation of homosexuality in England and Wales. If Leadbeater’s Bill does pass, as is expected, it will constitute one of the biggest changes made to UK law via PMB in decades. The lesson? Perhaps the UK’s antiquated political system, by allowing private bills, actually creates a more reactive and liberal approach to lawmaking.

The Week in Stats

1.7% – CPI Inflation in the 12 months to September 2024: the lowest year-on-year level in more than three years.

9.8% – Average London rent inflation in the 12 months to September 2024.

92 – Number of Peers set to lose their seats in the House of Lords under the Hereditary Peers Bill.

1% – UK population increase in both 2022 and 2023: the fastest pace of growth in over 75 years.

3.8% – Decrease in UK residential greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 (after emissions increased by 1.2% in 2022)

23,000 – suspected victims of modern slavery who are still awaiting a decision from the Home Office regarding their status.

68 – Days ‘til Christmas (yes, that’s right… just 68…)

18 – Days to go in the race to see whether US Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will become the next leader of the free world.

In Case You Missed It

The final two Tory leadership candidates took questions from a studio audience of Conservative Party members and viewers at home, as part of a GB News special – likely to be the only TV event the two candidates take part in after a BBC programme proposed for next week was scrapped. Robert Jenrick largely spoke about reducing immigration, whilst Kemi Badenoch was less heavy on the policy, instead focusing on uniting the Party behind a core set of Conservative principles. Despite protestations from Team Jenrick, Badenoch was the clear winner of the night, with around 90% of the studio audience picking her in show of hands.

New measures to support victims of modern slavery were unveiled on Anti-Slavery Day. The Government has pledged to eradicate the backlog of decisions on modern slavery cases within 2 years, with 200 additional Home Office staff set to be hired by early 2025, to help process cases. Speaking at an event, Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips labelled tackling modern slavery one of her top priorities, as she promised to drive up prosecution numbers for perpetrators and reform the modern slavery system.

Former First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond died on Saturday at the age of 69, after suffering a heart attack in North Macedonia, where he had given a speech at an Academy for Cultural Diplomacy conference earlier in the day. The Prime Minister, the incumbent Scottish First Minister John Swinney and Salmond’s successor Nicola Sturgeon all paid tribute to him.

The Government unveiled new regulations for Buy-Now, Pay-Later products, with the launch of a consultation on new rules to allow the FCA to apply rules of affordability. Companies will also need to provide clear, simple and accessible information about loan agreements in advance, so shoppers can make fully informed decisions. Final legislation is expected to be laid in Parliament in early 2025, with rules set to take effect in 2026.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband signed an agreement with the Scottish Government to boost Great British Energy’s ambitions to support clean energy supply chains and infrastructure. The announcement came as he visited Aberdeen, the newly announced headquarters of his flagship GB Energy, along with its Chair Juergen Maier. The Government also confirmed acceleration of delivery on ‘skills passports’, to support oil and gas workers to move more easily into careers in the renewable sector.

A cross-Government motor insurance taskforce was launched by the Transport Secretary and Economic Secretary to the Treasury, to help drive down the high costs of car insurance. The taskforce will seek to identify the factors behind rapidly rising premiums, and agree solutions to help keep costs under control. The taskforce comes as industry experts, consumer champions and regulators met on Wednesday to discuss spiralling car insurance costs, which according to FCA analysis have grown by an average of 21% since June 2022.

The Government announced it will launch an independent review into Carer’s Allowance overpayments, focusing on how and why such overpayments were accrued, operational changes to minimise the risk of this happening again, and how the DWP can best support those with overpayments.

A new Science Advisory Council has been established in the Department for Education, consisting of a team of 12 experts and chaired by Professor Dame Athene Donald. The new Council will provide scientific advice to ministers in areas such as early identification and support of SEND children, mental health support, online harms prevention and AI.

Mariella Frostrup was appointed the Government Menopause Employment Ambassador. Frostrup, a leading women’s health and equality campaigner, will work closely with employers across the country to improve workplace support for women experiencing the menopause, raise awareness of the symptoms and champion the economic contributions of women.

Israel confirmed the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, with US President Joe Biden stating he hopes this will raise the prospect of a ceasefire. However, Israeli PM Benhamin Netanyahu has said Sinwar’s death does not mean the end of the war in Gaza.

Highlights from Parliament

The Liberal Democrats, still bathing in the success of having 72 MPs, were granted their first allotted opposition day debates in the House of Commons since way back in 2009, when the England Football national team was managed by a European and Tim Farron was the Lib Dem Environment Spokesperson (okay, maybe not all that much has changed…). The debates in 2009 were on Climate Change and the Equitable Life Scandal, while the 2024 Lib Dems chose Primary Healthcare and, still loving a scandal, issues with the Carer’s Allowance.

Some consequential legislation also continued its journey through Parliament this week, with MPs in the Commons voting on Tuesday to approve the second reading of the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, which will remove the remaining 92 Hereditary Peers at the end of the parliamentary session; while on Monday MPs gave their initial support to the Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Bill, more commonly known as Martyn’s Law. This seeks to ensure venues take into account the threat they may face from terrorism, and it was introduced following campaigning from the mother of Martyn Hett, who was killed in the Manchester Arena attack in 2017.

20 MPs presented their Private Members’ Bills to Parliament on Wednesday. The first seven Bills (guaranteed at least a second reading), cover topics including assisted dying, rare cancers, climate and nature, banning smartphones in schools and requiring new homes to have solar panels.

Polls and Think Tanks

53% of Britons oppose Labour’s proposals to release certain prisoners early to alleviate overcrowding, while 21% support the initiative, according to an Ipsos poll. As prisons are put at 98% capacity, the Government began an early release scheme that hopes to create 5,500 extra prison spaces in the coming months. 28% expect this plan will lead to better standards of living conditions for inmates. Those aged 55-75 disagree with the policy the most, with 75% opposing.

Despite inflation falling to the lowest rate in over three years, four in ten renters are still struggling to pay for rent, down from 55% finding it difficult last year. According to a YouGov poll, a quarter (24%) of mortgagers are also still feeling the effects of the cost of living crisis, as they report they are finding it difficult to afford payments, although this is also down from the previous year when it stood at 35%.

The UK should harness the Commonwealth’s strategic value, according to Policy Exchange’s new report which identifies areas where co-operation could be deepened, including in sectors such as education, security, environmental protection and defence.

You’ve Got to Laugh

It’s not often a You’ve Got to Laugh moment comes from an oral questions session (being one of the more tedious parts of Parliamentary activity), but Wednesday’s DSIT OPQs provided some perfect comedic timing. Unfortunately for Conservative MP Ashley Fox, just as he was detailing that mobile phone signal is non-existent in much of his constituency, he was completely overshadowed… by (you guessed it) a mobile phone ringing. Hats off to Telecoms Minister Chris Bryant who brushed off the mishap by joking that, unlike the rest of the country, the mobile phone signal seems to be working just fine in the Chamber.

The gags in Wednesday’s plenary continued in the Opposition Day debate on access to primary healthcare. Opening the debate, Shadow Minister Caroline Johnson called for the Government to deliver a present and introduce the Tobacco and Vapes Bill before Christmas to which quick-witted Health Sec Wes Streeting immediately asked the Shadow Minister if she has been naughty or nice. Pretty clearly taken aback, Johnson delivered a corker of a response, insisting “I have been a good girl, thank you, Secretary of State.”

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