A Happy Union | Inheritance Tax | Lettuce Prey

Charles Fletcher
August 16, 2024
8
min read
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Results Day: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson celebrates with students receiving their A-level results during a visit to Loreto Sixth Form College in Manchester © PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

Driving the Week

A back-dated 14% pay-rise for ASLEF train drivers has led the end of the week headlines in an otherwise relatively slow middle-of-recess news week. Following last week’s far-right riots, speedy prosecutions and increasing pressure over the Government’s stance on the war in Gaza, you would have been forgiven for thinking a pay-deal and potential end to the rail strikes would have been an August-win for the Government in a deal we’re told was personally brokered by the Transport Secretary Louise Haigh. Well, it turns out there’s no such luck in a slow news week, with both the Mail and Express leading criticism of the Government for caving into the unions whilst ending winter fuel payments for 800,000 pensioners. The pay deal has also bolstered other unions in negotiations including the TSSA, RMT and BMA, suggesting public service strikes may be far from over…

Just six weeks into the job and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is facing increasing pressure over her repeated claim that Labour has inherited an economy in “the worst set of circumstances since the Second World War”. With July’s predicted rise in inflation lower than expected, and GDP growth hitting 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024 – almost matching the 0.7% growth in the first three months of the year – the Chancellor is facing more and more questions over her assertions, that appear to be setting the scene for tax rises in the Autumn Budget. With 11 weeks to go to her first Budget, it remains to be seen whether the bold attack line will hold in the face of an improved economic picture and tabloid press pack growing increasingly hostile by the day.

The Week in Stats

27.8% – A-Levels graded at A* and A

14.94% – Total three-year pay rise ASLEF is recommending its members accept

37 – Age of Thailand’s new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest PM in the nation’s history

0.6% – GDP growth between April and June in the UK. The UK has grown faster than any other G7 nation in 2024

£288,000 – Average property price in the UK, up 2.7% in the last year

460 – People arrested for a variety of offences related to the disorder seen across the UK in recent weeks who have appeared in court.

In Case You Missed It

Inflation is back up, rising for the first time this year to 2.2%, just above the Bank of England’s 2% target (where the rate has been since May). This rise was widely predicted and is largely due to gas and electricity prices falling by less than they did in the year before. The ONS also revealed that the UK economy grew by 0.6% between April and June, following on from a 0.7% increase in the first quarter of 2024. This GDP growth was led by the services sector, particularly the IT industry, scientific research and legal services.

A-level results day on Thursday revealed that 76% of English 18-year-old applicants have been accepted into their first choice of university, after 27.8% of UK A-level entries achieved grade A and above, and 76.4% achieved grade C and above. However, the results also highlighted persistent regional disparities, with the gap between the highest and lowest performing regions having grown compared to last year.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy is on a visit to Israel with his French counterpart, to press for a ceasefire in Gaza. This comes as a fresh round of talks are underway in Doha, with US, Egyptian and Qatari negotiators meeting with an Israeli delegation.

The Child Poverty Taskforce met for the first time on Wednesday, with Cabinet Ministers from across the Government joining the co-chairs, DWP Secretary Liz Kendall and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson. The Taskforce is due to publish a Child Poverty Strategy in spring 2025. Meanwhile, the Deputy PM and Business Secretary convened their first meeting on the Government’s Plan to Make Work Pay, hosting a number of senior representatives from business organisations and trade unions.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra became Thailand’s youngest ever Prime Minister, after being chosen by the Parliament with 319 endorsements (compared to 145 against votes). She is the daughter of the country’s former leader and billionaire tycoon, Thaksin, and will be the second woman to hold this role, after her aunt Yingluck. She is the fourth member of the Shinawatra clan to become PM.

Polls and Think Tanks

A greater focus on local and hyper-local governance will be needed to achieve England’s ‘devolution revolution’, according to the first major policy report in Reform’s ‘Reimagining the Local State’ programme. It argues that for real regional governance, a far broader sweep of powers should be devolved to combined authorities and the GLA by default, as well as clear responsibilities and ways to effectively propose the drawing-down of powers from higher tiers when appropriate.

Rent controls do far more harm than good, so argues a new briefing paper from the IEA. It comes as calls to introduce rent controls in Britain have mounted in response to the housing crisis, with London Mayor Sadiq Khan, a recent Labour-commissioned report and the Green Party backing the idea. The paper highlights that most studies (56 out of 65) note that rent controls succeed in lowering rents for controlled units, as intended. However, 14 out of 17 studies found that rent controls lead to higher rents in the uncontrolled sector; 12 out of 16 found negative effects on housing supply; and 15 out of 20 found they lead to reduced housing quality and maintenance.  

34% of Brits view immigration as an important issue facing the country, putting it top of the Ipsos Issues Index for the first time since October 2016. There has also been a notable increase in concern about crime and race relations following the anti-immigration riots seen across the UK earlier this month, with 25% naming crime as an important issue compared to just 6% a month ago; and 11% saying race relations: the highest score since June 2020.  

You’ve Got to Laugh

Liz Truss (remember her?) was the latest target of lefty activist group Led By Donkeys’ remote-controlled banner prank, with a lettuce-themed joke about the economy lowered behind her while she wore a salad-green outfit and emphasised that “it’s the economy, stupid” (how does she manage it). Truss’ subsequent claim that the prank was meant to ‘intimidate people and suppress free speech’ really took the lettuce biscuit.

Conservative MSP Stephen Kerr embarrassed himself this week when he accidentally posted criticism of his erstwhile ally Murdo Fraser’s Scottish Conservative leadership campaign as a status update on WhatsApp, rather than a private message. In a series of posts, he labelled Fraser’s campaign ‘awful’ and said he wished he’d nominated a rival instead. He also hit fellow Fraser supporter Graham Simpson with the worst of all insults: that he ‘knows zilch about working with councillors’. You don’t come back from that…

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