COP out | Risk Management | ‘Specially Awkward Relationship

Charles Fletcher
November 15, 2024
8
min read
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We will remember them: Ed Davey, Kemi Badenoch and Keir Starmer stand in front of former Prime Ministers Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson and Theresa May as they prepare to lay wreaths at the Cenotaph last Sunday © PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

Driving the Week

COP29 kicked off this week in Azerbaijan, with the primary focus of talks seeking an agreement on climate finance. Keir Starmer was in attendance at the start of the week, but there has been concern over the diminished importance of this year’s conference after a number of notable figures were missing, including US President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron – and all this at a time of high concern over the climate with Donald Trump expected to (once again) take the USA out of the Paris Agreement, as well as increase fossil fuel production and fracking. This also wasn’t helped by comments from the COP29 host, with the Azerbaijani President calling oil and gas a “gift of God” and saying that countries “should not be blamed” for having fossil fuel reserves and bringing them to market. The big news for the UK was Starmer’s announcement on Tuesday setting out the Government’s new emissions reduction target of 81% on 1990 levels by 2035. This was accompanied by further announcements from other ministers in attendance, including the launch of the new CIF Capital Market Mechanism on the London Stock Exchange, the Clean Industry Bonus Scheme and a new initiative to support forest tenure rights for Indigenous People in the Amazon.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her first Mansion House speech on Thursday night, in which she announced a package of reforms to ensure the UK’s status as a ‘global powerhouse’ for financial services. Notably, she also said that post-2008 regulations had “gone too far” in seeking to eliminate risk taking. Key announcements included: the creation of pension mega funds to boost investment, the first ever Financial Services Growth and Competitiveness Strategy to be published next year, the setting up of new growth-focused remits for financial service regulators, the publication of a new National Payments Vision, and draft legislation on regulating ESG providers. After concern from many firms and think tanks over Reeves’ Budget plan to increase employers’ National Insurance Contributions, this was her chance to woo the City and refocus the political narrative on Labour’s ‘growth mission’.

And of course commemorations took place for Remembrance Sunday, with King Charles leading the UK in a two-minute silence. The Prime Minister was joined by the new Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch, as well as eight former Prime Ministers to lay wreaths at the Cenotaph.

The Week in Stats

81% – The UK’s new climate target – to reduce the country’s emissions by 81% by 2035 against 1990 levels.

1,200 – The number of positions the US President appoints that need Senate confirmation.

£15m – How much the previous Government spent to buy a migrant camp in 2023… twice what the seller paid in 2022.

0.1% – How much the economy grew between July and September

5 – full weeks left until Christmas recess.

In case you missed it

Council Tax bills will likely rise by 5% next year, after Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook confirmed to MPs that the Government “remain committed” to the 5% existing cap. An extra £1.8bn will be raised through council tax in 2025/26.

The Cabinet Office announced new controls on the use of consultancies across government, in an attempt to save £1.2bn by 2026, including £550m this financial year. Ministerial signoff will now be required for any consultancy spend over £600,000, or for contracts lasting more than nine months, and sign-off from the Permanent Secretary will be needed on any consultancy spend over £100,000 or lasting more than three months.

Leader of the SNP in Westminster Stephen Flynn is seeking to become an MSP, having announced his intention to stand at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Despite repeatedly criticising former Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross for holding positions in both parliaments, and an SNP rule that prevents politicians double jobbing, he has said that were he to be successful, he would sit in both Westminster and Holyrood.

Defence Secretary John Healey met with his counterparts in Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, this week to 'further defence cooperation'. In Türkiye, Healey and his counterpart reaffirmed plans to 'work together towards greater military cooperation and pursue a joint strategy for industry', whilst in Saudi Arabia the Defence Secretary announced plans to 'build on the decades-long defence relationship between the UK and KSA to enhance cooperation on shared security priorities.'

Transport Secretary Louise Haigh has commissioned a review into the way train companies tackle suspected fare evasion following reports of 'instances where a disproportionate approach might have been taken to those making a genuine mistake'. She also told the Transport Select Committee this week that she will be looking to regulate e-scooters, stating a bill was “clearly required”, but that there was insufficient time to do so in the current parliamentary session.

Sue Gray will not take up a role as the Prime Minister’s envoy for the nations and regions, the FT reported this week. The former senior civil servant and Boris Johnson’s supporters’ bête noire, left her role as Keir Starmer’s Chief of Staff after just three months amid speculation of in-fighting within the top ranks of the new Labour Government. Her son, Liam Conlon, was elected the new Labour MP for Beckenham and Penge in July, and quickly appointed a PPS in the Department for Transport.

Donald Trump began to assemble his Cabinet to take over Government posts in just over two months’ time. Amongst his appointees are Florida Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Fox News host and army veteran Pete Hegseth as Secretary for Defence, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as Head of the Department for Homeland Security; Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, anti-vaxxer and JFK’s nephew Robert F Kennedy as Health Secretary, and former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe as Director of the CIA.

Highlights from Parliament

The future of the Post Office was debated in the Commons, following the news that up to 150 branches could close as part of Chair Nigel Railton’s radical shake-up. Business Minister Gareth Thomas delivered a Ministerial Statement on Wednesday, stating that the new deal seeks to put postmasters “at the heart of the Post Office”, with stronger engagement in the running of the business. He confirmed that no decisions to close any or all of the remaining directly managed branches have been taken, adding the Government has made it clear that it expects the Post Office to consult with postmasters, trade unions and other stakeholders before any individual decisions are taken.

The Assisted Dying Bill was formally introduced by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, with second reading scheduled for 29 November in the House of Commons. The Bill – called the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill – would make it legal for over-18s who are terminally ill to be given assistance to end their own life. Leadbeater said her plan is focused on “shortening death rather than ending life” and ensures “the strictest safeguards anywhere in the world”. Health Secretary Wes Streeting is expected to vote against the Bill. However, the Government has adopted a neutral stance on the proposed law, and Labour MPs will not be instructed how to vote. The Conservatives and Lib Dems have also confirmed they will give their MPs a free vote on the proposals.

Over in the House of Lords, debates on the Budget continued and both the Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill and Bank Resolution (Recapitalisation) Bill passed third reading.

Polls and Think Tanks

People consistently want to see the Church of England separated from the State, with the 50% in favour mirroring the 51% in favour a decade ago, according to YouGov’s polling. This is up from the 37% who supported the separation in 1957, although there was stronger support for the status quo during that time. The polling also found that 73% of Britons think the Church of England has little to no influence on their lives, and 62% approved of Justin Welby’s decision to resign as archbishop of Canterbury.

Only 9% of Britons believe COP29 will result in significant action to tackle climate change, YouGov polling also found. 78% said the development of cleaner and more environmentally friendly technologies was key to combatting climate chance, while 53% said the same of conferences like COP29.

The demographics of low-to-middle income families are changing according to the Resolution Foundation’s report ‘Unsung Britain’, with lower-income families now almost as likely to be in their 50s as in their 20s (20% and 21% respectively), a big shift from the mid-1990s when people in this group were around 60% more likely to be in their 20s. It also found that one-in-eight care for an ill, disabled or elderly adult; the share that are workless has almost halved, from 24% in 1996-97 to 13% in 2022-23; and home ownership has fallen from a peak of 40% in 2000-01 to around 30% in 2022-23.

You’ve Got to Laugh

GB News coverage of the 2 minute silence didn’t exactly go to plan last Sunday. Unlike the channel’s usual well-known reputation for silent, dignified self-reflection and thought... after a brief 20 seconds or so, the channel temporarily went off-air and viewers were left with a high-pitched monotone whining noise and their own version of the famous BBC test card that used to show a young child and a toy clown. It’s been reported that large swathes of viewers were unable to tell the point at which GB News’ standard coverage resumed…

The names announced as part of Donald Trump’ second-term Cabinet have already led to a number of raised eyebrows and concern across Europe, but it was the appointment of two billionaires – Elon Musk (the richest man in the world) and Vivek Ramaswamy (a pharmaceutical entrepreneur) as joint Commissioners of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE for short…) – that drew most attention. There is a certain irony of course in not one, but two people being appointed to head up a new department tasked with finding efficiencies… our money is on Elon pushing Vivek out the door rather rapidly (h/t Jim Pickard). 

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