Cracking on: Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips walks into Downing Street this week, having described her fear for her own safety after Elon Musk's called for her to be sent to prison. © Monica Wells / Alamy Stock Photo
The grooming gangs scandal exploded back into the political consciousness as the UK political agenda was set by the world’s richest man on the other side of the planet. In an almost constant stream of posts, Elon Musk claimed Labour had ignored the victims of grooming gangs, said the Prime Minister had been ‘complicit in the rape of Britain’ during his tenure as director of public prosecutions and accused Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips of being a ‘genocidal rape apologist’. After weeks of non-engagement with the tweeter-in-chief, Starmer finally felt compelled to respond, indirectly accusing him of “spreading lies and misinformation.” The matter came to a head on Wednesday, when the Conservatives (who Starmer had accused of "jumping on the bandwagon”) tried to push through a vote demanding a new inquiry into the scandal. Musk’s obsession with the British political establishment reached new heights this week – suggesting Reform UK leader Nigel Farage should be replaced, calling Lib Dem leader Ed Davey a ‘snivelling cretin’, and apparently convening meetings to discuss the wholesale toppling of the British Government.
T-minus 10 days to inauguration. Donald Trump seemed to be doing his very best to upset his allies and destabilise the global order ahead of his inauguration, as he doubled down on foreign policy proposals that ranged from wacky to downright dangerous. He continued to call for Canada to become the “51st state” and threatened to erase the “artificially drawn” US-Canada border with “economic force”, building on his pre-existing obsession with leveraging heavy tariffs against America’s neighbours. He reiterated his desire to see the United States acquire the Panama Canal and Greenland, pointedly refusing to rule out using military force to achieve either of these goals and prompting the once-unimaginable scenes of Germany and France having to reiterate that the EU would take military steps to protect its members. He also suggested that NATO members should spend 5% of GDP on defence (the UK Government has promised a ‘roadmap’ to just 2.5%, and even the USA does not spend this much). It’s going to be a bumpy four years…
Hopefully by now the shock of the cold weather has eased, the last few left-over Christmas Quality Street have been polished off, and the return of The Traitors has softened the start to 2025. Here’s a look ahead at some of the big events we can expect from the year ahead…
20 Jan – Donald Trump returns to the White House as the 47th President of the United States.
11 Feb – France will host the AI Action Summit at the Grand Palais, although it remains to be seen whether the Prime Minister will show.
23 Feb – German voters will go to the polls to elect a new Bundestag, with the CDU’s Friedrich Merz highly likely to take over the Chancellery, and the far-right AfD potentially taking more seats than the current leading SPD.
26 March – Rachel Reeves will deliver her Spring Forecast. Whilst she promised this will not be a major fiscal event, this will almost certainly need to be bigger than billed…
01 April – Employer National Insurance Contributions will rise to 15%, the state pension will increase by 4.1%, the National Minimum Wage for 18-20 year olds will rise to £10 per hour, and the National Living Wage will increase to £12.21 per hour.
01 May – Local elections are due to take place across the UK… although a number of elections will be delayed by a year due to the Government’s plans for a reorganisation of local government.
18 May – The first round of the Polish Presidential Election will take place, with a second round on 01 June if required.
01 June – The ban on the sale of disposable vapes is due to come into force.
10 June – The next G7 summit will see a new Canadian PM welcome a new US President. If Trump’s talk of Canada becoming the US’s “51st state” continues, it will make for an awkward week all round.
24 June – The NATO Summit at The Hague will undoubtedly see further pledges on defence spending as countries seek to assuage an irritable Trump 2.0.
04 July – Oasis begin their reunion tour in Cardiff meaning the September Register of Members Interests should be an interesting read…
07 Sept – Delegates to the next TUC Congress may not be quite as welcoming to Keir Starmer as they were in 2024 if further “difficult decisions” need to be taken over the next 9 months…
01 Oct – The ban on the advertising of junk food on TV before 9pm is due to come into force.
10 Nov – COP30, due to take place in Brazil is set to be another tense meeting of world leaders with Donald Trump planning to row back on environmental pledges announced under his predecessor
22 Nov – The G20 summit will kick off in Johannesburg. At 11 months away, we’re not making any predictions about what world events will have taken place by then…
And amongst all this we’re due several major UK policy announcements from the Government including the publication of the Strategic Defence Review in the spring, and the publication of the Spending Review, currently expected in June. Hold on to your hats, we have a long year ahead of us…
16,400 – illegal immigrants have been removed since the 2024 general election.
2030 – the last year that new petrol or diesel cars will be sold, with all new cars and vans to be 100% zero emission by 2035.
£126m – Government funding boost for early years support, including pregnancy support, infant feeding advice and parenting classes.
10% – of all jet fuel must be sustainable by 2030 as the UK’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Mandate came into force on 1 January.
30,000 – drones to be sent to Ukraine, funded by the UK, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands and Latvia.
150,000 – new ‘high-quality jobs’ to be created for Londoners by 2030 as part of Sadiq Khan’s new London Growth Plan.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves came under pressure this week, as UK borrowing costs hit their highest rate for 16 years and the pound fell to its lowest level in a year. Despite calls from opposition parties to abandon the trip, Reeves has arrived in China for a scheduled three-day visit aimed at improving trade and economic links. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones assured Parliament that the “UK gilt markets continue to function in an orderly way” and that “underlying demand for the UK’s debt remains strong”.
The Foreign Secretary David Lammy delivered a major speech on the future of the UK’s foreign policy, emphasising that the world would not return to “normal” and that the “post-Cold War peace is well and truly over”. In a wide-ranging address, Lammy spoke about Ukraine, the Middle East, defence spending, AI, international alliances, clean power, climate finance, and migration.
The week began with the Prime Minister marking the start of 2025 with his own speech, unveiling the Elective Reform Plan. Proposals within this include an upgraded NHS app, greater choice and control for patients, the establishment of minimum standards that patients should expect, the expansion of community diagnostic centres, and a new deal with the independent sector.
The Prime Minister also treated French President Emmanuel Macron to dinner at Chequers, as the two spent the evening discussing the reset of the UK’s relationship with the EU, global stability, and illegal migration. With a UK-France Bilateral Summit due later this year, they also discussed ‘aims to deepen cooperation on growth, defence, security, AI and energy’.
A new sanctions regime will be introduced to crack down on people smuggling, with the world-first proposals allowing the UK to target organised immigration networks and freeze the bank accounts and assets of people smugglers. The announcement came as figures show that the number of people with no right to be In the UK being removed had hit its highest number since 2018.
The City Minister Tulip Siddiq has referred herself to the Prime Minister’s Standards Adviser, after she was named in an investigation into the former Bangladeshi Prime Minister, who is also her aunt, Sheikh Hasina. Siddiq has said she is ‘clear’ that she has ‘done nothing wrong’, with the Prime Minister saying he had “full confidence” in her.
Another incumbent leader is going, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party. Trudeau, the son of former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, has been in power since 2015 but has become increasingly unpopular with the Canadian people.
Theresa May’s Chief Negotiator during the Brexit talks is back in Government, as Olly Robbins has been appointed the new Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office. He replaces Sir Philip Barton, who spent 38 years in the Civil Service.
The weather has also been in the news this week, with devastating wildfires in Los Angeles destroying thousands of buildings and spanning tens of thousands of acres. Meanwhile the UK has seen the coldest night of the winter so far, with a temperature of -14.5C recorded in northern Scotland.
Parliament returned this week against a backdrop of calls for another national inquiry into child grooming gangs and concerns over the looming Trump presidency. The main focus was the second reading of the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill, which the Conservatives attempted to kill with an amendment which would have required the Government to commence another national inquiry into the grooming gangs scandal. Meanwhile, debates on topics as varied as violence against women and girls, seizing frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, and backlogs in the NHS also took place.
Over in the Lords, legislative progress was brisk. The National Insurance Contributions Bill, the Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Bill and the Bus Services Bill progressed with the completion of their second readings. Peers also debated recent publications from the Science and Technology Committee and the International Relations and Defence Committee relating to energy storage and the Arctic respectively.
Starmer is still just about the most favourable leader when compared to Badenoch and Farage, according to polling by Ipsos, though his favourability is still in the minority. When going head to head against the two, Starmer takes 32% of supporters against Badenoch, with the leader of the Conservatives trailing behind on 18%. The Prime Minister fairs slightly better when in comparison with Farage, on 37% compared to Farage’s 25%. Perhaps most telling in the first poll is that, when given the choice between Badenoch or Starmer, a vast 41% of respondents to the survey choose neither.
The introduction of an Elections Bill might be needed to combat populism and address voting inequality says the IPPR in their report into revitalising democratic participation, with key findings suggesting that voting inequality is largest between graduates and non-graduates. The key suggestion in the report is to cap political donations from businesses and individuals at £100,000, after a record number of donations over £1m were given in the election last year. Other recommendations from the report include: linking up with DVLA, DWP, Passport Office to prompt voter registration; moving polling day to a weekend; allowing a wider range of photo IDs; expanding the Electoral Commission’s powers; basing constituency boundaries on the entire adult population of an area, not just registered voters; and lowering the vote to 16.
Keir Starmer has had a rather eventful first week back in Parliament, with Elon Musk reportedly discussing ways to oust him before the next election and Liz Truss hoping for a 2025 rebrand by sending him a cease and desist letter, demanding that Starmer stops claiming that she crashed the economy. The former PM’s lawyers argue that the statement is “false and defamatory” and even suggest that it contributed to Truss losing her seat as the MP for South West Norfolk in July. However, her mini-Budget disaster has already been mentioned 11 times by MPs and Peers speaking in Parliament this week so they might need to send out a few more letters…
Our first 2025 unfortunate-typo-of-the-week award goes to the Commons Science and Tech Committee this week, who published a comment from the committee’s chair, Chi Onwurah MP, inviting – you guessed it – the man of the moment, Elon Musk to give oral evidence in response to the committee’s inquiry into “Misinformation”. Unfortunately in the press release about misinformation online, they spelt the Prime Minister’s name wrong…
