MAGA 2.0: Donald Trump declares victory at an election night watch party in Florida as votes were being counted across the country © Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Britons woke up to the news that the American public chose to elect its first felon – rather than its first woman – to the Oval Office. Former President, billionaire, media personality and businessman Donald J Trump was elected after winning all of the swing states and the popular vote, a feat he never achieved in 2016. With 301 electoral votes currently, Trump is expected to re-enter the White House with the Republicans in control of Congress, after the Democrats lost four seats in the Senate. He is the second person to have won two terms non-consecutively, with Grover Cleveland in 1892 being the first. Vice President Harris conceded the election on Wednesday, telling her supporters to “never give up the fight” and that she would engage in a peaceful transfer of power, a sentiment echoed by President Biden, who invited the President-elect to the White House.
How did the twice-impeached former President win? Pollsters predicted that Harris would win, but early results showed that Trump improved his 2020 margin in about 90% of counties. The key swing states that handed Trump the presidency were Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin. Trump’s margin in Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, improved in both rural and urban areas, and he ended up winning by more than 100,000 votes. Even in the non-swing states, Harris underperformed Biden in traditionally Democratic-supporting areas as well. New Jersey, generally considered a reliable state for Democrats with 14 electoral votes, only had a 5.3% difference between Harris and Trump, its smallest margin in a presidential election since 1992. Looking at demographics, Harris underperformed staggeringly among Hispanic voters, with Trump winning the group by a 10-point margin to overturn Biden’s 23-points lead from 2020. She also struggled to appeal to Republican women, attracting only 54% of female voters generally, a drop from Biden’s 57% in 2020. As the Democratic party looks for answers for why voters shifted towards Trump, analysts are pointing to anxiety about the economy, Harris’ inability to distance herself from the Biden administration, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Biden’s late decision to pull out of the race.
And how has the news gone down in Westminster? Prime Minister Keir Starmer opened PMQs by congratulating Trump on the “historic victory”, despite the fact the result is the worst situation the fresh Labour government could have hoped for. Meanwhile, newly-elected Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch (oh yeah, that also happened this week) wasted no time in her first PMQs when she challenged Starmer and the Government to be “more than student politicians” and invite Trump to address Parliament. Starmer countered that he looked forward to working with Trump. If anyone is interested in developing a close relationship with Trump, they need look no further than at Reform’s own, Nigel Farage, who spent election night celebrating with the man of the hour himself. Farage wrote an article offering to help “bridge the divide” between the UK Government and the President-Elect, which Cabinet Office Secretary Pat McFadden rejected, suggesting Farage’s focus should be on Clacton, not Washington DC.
It seems an awfully long time ago now, but the past seven days also saw Kemi Badenoch elected as leader of the Conservative Party, defeating her rival Robert Jenrick by 53,806 votes to 41,388. The first new Tory leader since David Cameron in 2005 to not automatically become Prime Minister, Badenoch used her victory speech to state the need to “bring back” voters who left them at the general election, while also admitting the Conservatives had “let standards slip” while in Government. On that note, she quickly appointed her Shadow Cabinet, bringing Priti Patel back to the frontbench as Shadow Foreign Secretary. Patel was previously forced to resign as International Development Secretary for holding unauthorised meetings with Israeli officials; and was also found to have ‘not consistently met the high standards required by the Ministerial Code of treating her civil servants with consideration and respect’ while Home Secretary... Other appointments included Mel Stride as Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Chris Philp as Shadow Home Secretary, and Jenrick himself as Shadow Justice Secretary. The first PMQs with Badenoch as leader of the Opposition also took place on Wednesday, with her questions focused on the US Election and criticism for the Budget for its “cruel family farms tax”.
Amid the backdrop of an incoming President of the USA who has been openly sceptical of NATO and critical of European nations spending on Defence, the European Political Community took place in Budapest this week. 42 heads of state and government were in attendance to hold discussions on on security, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East, irregular migration, economic security, and yes, relations with the USA. Keir Starmer held bilateral meetings with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Prime Minister Tusk of Poland and Prime Minister Fiala of Czechia, with defence and security the focus of much of these conversations.
45% – women who voted for Donald Trump this week.
4.75% – the Bank of England’s new Interest Rate, down from 5%.
Over 32,000 – delegates arriving in Baku this weekend ahead of COP29 beginning on Monday.
£2.7m – Government funding announced to tackle rough sleeping in London this week.
73% – eligible voters who cast their vote in the Conservative Party leadership election.
24% – drop in Conservative Party membership since its last leadership vote in 2022.
50 – average age of the new Shadow Cabinet, the youngest being new Shadow Scotland Secretary Andrew Bowie MP at 37.
2 – days of Parliamentary recess this week, the only recess until the Christmas break.
6 – full weeks left until Christmas recess.
The Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.75% but warned that further falls would be gradual as a result of measures announced in the Budget last month, with the Bank likely to hold rates at its next meeting in December. Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the decision but said she was “under no illusion about the scale of the challenge facing households”.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer addressed the INTERPOL General Assembly in Glasgow, announcing an additional £75m to boost border security, bringing the investment in the Border Security Command over the next two years to £150m. In his speech, Starmer outlined his personal mission to ‘smash the people smuggling gangs by resetting the UK’s whole approach to this challenge and intensifying international collaboration’. He also announced that the National Crime Agency will receive a £58m increase in its core budget for the 2025/26 financial year; and highlighted new figures showing 9,400 people with no right to be in the UK have been returned since the Government took power.
Tuition fees are set to rise in line with inflation to £9,535 next year, an increase of £285 on current fees. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson confirmed there would also be an inflation-linked increase to maintenance loans to help students facing cost of living pressures, with providers expected to play a greater role in expanding access and improving outcomes for disadvantaged students.
An updated Ministerial Code was published setting out ‘new transparency requirements and clear principles governing the acceptance of gifts and hospitality’. It also ‘delivers on a manifesto commitment on the powers of the Prime Minister’s Independent Adviser to investigate any potential breaches of the Code. Formally renamed as the Independent Adviser on Ministerial Standards - they will now have the power to start misconduct investigations without the possibility of a veto by the Prime Minister’.
A new AI assurance platform will be launched for businesses, giving them access to a one-stop-shop for information on the actions they can take to identify and mitigate the potential risks and harms posed by AI. The AI Safety Institute also announced a new AI safety partnership with Singapore, which will ‘see the two institutes work together closely to drive forward research and work towards a shared set of policies, standards, and guidance’.
Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury was charged with common assault after a video emerged of him punching a man to the ground in Cheshire. The Runcorn and Helsby MP will appear in court at a later date to be formally charged, describing the incident as “deeply regrettable”.
The UN Biodiversity Summit in Colombia concluded over the weekend, with progress made on several fronts, including on the protection of 30% of land and ocean by 2030 and the launch of a New Finance Trends dashboards. The UK was, however, disappointed that COP16 concluded before reaching an agreement on international strategies for mobilising nature finance and a framework for monitoring progress against international targets.
With attention focused on somewhat more consequential world events, Parliament’s truncated sitting week seemed fitting. Despite the fact the short recess saw both houses only sit for three days, and much of this time spent debating last week’s Budget, legislative progress was still made with the Water (Special Measures) Bill completing its committee stage in the Lords, while the Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill steamed its way through report stage.
Down on committee corridor, this week’s highlight was the Chancellor’s appearance before the Treasury Committee. She declared she had “set the envelope for spending for this parliament”, implying the Government will avoid further tax rises in the future, and reiterated that achieving economic growth was her number one priority. She welcomed the “very positive news” about living standards in the OBR’s economic forecasts, which showed a 2% increase to GDP in 2025.
45% of Brits are very unhappy at Donald Trump’s return to the White House, according to YouGov’s snap poll on Wednesday. This compares to 11% who are very happy, and 19% who are neither happy nor unhappy. Unsurprisingly the difference of opinion between Labour and Reform voters is even starker – with 64% of Labour voters very unhappy, compared to 38% of Reform voters who are delighted… which despite the Government’s careful diplomatic language this week gives you some idea of what 10 Downing Street must be thinking right now…
Young Brits might not be enamoured with American politics right now but they are with American traditions it turns out. 44% of 18-34 year olds prefer Halloween to Bonfire night, compared to 36% who favour setting light to an effigy of Guy Fawkes over trick or treating. Ipsos latest poll also revealed the Halloween creatures voters best believe represent each of the political parties. Unfortunately for Labour, the Tories, Lib Dems and Reform… clowns all came top.
There’s not been a great deal to laugh about this week in politics, however, in the midst of world leaders rushing to suck up to President-elect Trump on Wednesday, people were quick to notice French President Emmanuel Macron’s rather interesting congratulations... managing to sneak the word “convictions” into his tweet. Nicely done.
And in completely politically irrelevant news, something to cheer people up on Wednesday was the emergence of a photo of Gary Barlow’s “massive” son. If you don’t know what we’re talking about, have a little search on twitter and enjoy all the memes and jokes!
