United we stand, divided we fall. The leadership hopefuls take to the stage at the Conservative Party Conference. © David Tramontan / Alamy Stock Photo
With a lame duck leader and Shadow Cabinet counting down the days to the party’s new commander in chief is announced on 2nd November, the only real point of focus at Tory Conference was on the four remaining candidates’ platform speeches. As we wait to see which direction the Conservative Party will be heading – lurching further to the right or dragged kicking and screaming back to the centre – we took a look at what we could gleam from each candidate’s performance and where they stand now the dust has settled in Birmingham. All eyes now fall on the party’s 121 MPs to see who will make it through to the final two… [For a more indepth summary of their speeches sent out to our clients this week, please get in touch]
“Serve. Lead. Act.” Tom Tugendhat kicked off the big speeches on Tuesday under his promise to “lead a conservative revolution”, in a speech clearly aimed at shoring up his own centrist-based support and appealing to the right of the party. Filled with rhetoric speaking of “patriotism and purpose”, a pledge to “free the economy” and end “Westminster political games”, he talked up his undeniable expertise in defence and foreign affairs and accused Labour of undermining free speech at universities and “trashing” the UK’s border security”. Realistically – as much as he’s tried to appeal to the right including through comments on the ECHR in recent weeks… finishing in fourth place in the first round and clearly being the most centrist candidate, Tugendhat needs to bag all of Mel Stride’s supporters and pick up as many centrists as possible to have a chance of scrapping it through, as it feels highly unlikely any right-wingers are going to jump across to his team.
“Unite our party with Conservative values.” James Cleverly may not have the catchiest slogan but his approach of trying to cut through the middle as the unifying candidate could be working, as it was roundly agreed that he walked away from Birmingham having had the best week. His call for the party to “be more normal”, his heavy criticism of Reform UK, and an emphasis on his record of serving to the end (with a not so subtle dig at Robert Jenrick for resigning as Immigration Minister), played up to his reputation as the nice guy who has the experience at the top to defeat Labour. Reiterating numerous times that now is “not the time for an apprentice”, he praised Ronald Reagan, criticised the rise of the nanny state and promised to reduce what he called “bad taxes”. Whether the former Foreign Sec’s good week translates into MP votes is another matter and we wait to see whether his performance swung Mel Stride’s former backers behind him.
“Change. Win. Deliver.” Robert Jenrick’s speech was perhaps the clearest speech structurally, setting out a five point plan to end “empty rhetoric” and deliver a “New Conservative Party”… however his vision for securing the borders, opposing Net Zero, “fixing the broken system”, railing against the big state, and standing up for British culture and identity; did nothing to quell questions about how the once centrist politician has lurched to the right, and where exactly he really stands. However, having already secured over a quarter of available votes in the last round, he seems the most likely to go through to the final two, particularly with rumours of a “Stop Kemi” tactical voting campaign swirling. Claims the UK’s membership of the ECHR means the SAS are having to kill not capture terrorists, accusations of Islamophobia in August, and the arguably bizarre revelation he gave his daughter the middle name “Thatcher” (surely Margaret would have worked, no?) don’t seem to have dented his support-base amongst the 121 parliamentary power brokers yet.
“Vote Kemi for Renewal.” Kemi Badenoch was, until Robert Jenrick’s recent conversion to the vote-heavy right-wing of the Conservative Party, very much the right-wing cohort’s choice; but a series of recent gaffes from the candidate who claimed in a recent podcast she “never has gaffes”, coupled with her second place finish in the last round of voting, means she is the candidate to beat to get through to the final two. Like Jenrick, she praised Margaret Thatcher in her speech, criticised the last Conservative Government for having “spoke right and governed left”, identified as a “net zero sceptic” and singled out laws such as the Human Rights Act and Equality Act for the potential chop. As Badenoch and Jenrick fight it out for the right-wing vote, the question remains who will pip the other to the post by next Wednesday, and whether splitting the vote will leave enough room for Cleverly or Tugendhat to squeeze through the middle. Either way, expect the party’s yellow card system designed to keep a lid on negative campaigning, to be forgotten as quickly as a Liz Truss premiership. All out blue-on-blue warfare is about to commence.
9 – Years since Parliament had a vote on assisted dying, with another likely to take place in 2025 after Kim Leadbeater confirmed she would be introducing a Private Members’ Bill on the topic. First reading is scheduled for 16th October.
More than 121 – MPs the Conservatives would have in Parliament if Liz Truss had remained Conservative leader and Prime Minister, according to Truss herself.
25.8% – Swing away from Liz Truss in the General Election, at which she lost her own constituency of South West Norfolk.
0 – Coal-fired power stations now operational in the UK, after Ratcliffe-on-Soar Power Station closed on Monday.
100% – Of tips that workers are now legally entitled to, after the Employment (Allocation of Tips) Act came into force at the start of the week.
The freebie debate continued this week, as the Prime Minister announced he has paid back £6,176 worth of gifts and hospitality, among them six tickets to see Taylor Swift. Downing Street explained that Starmer was paying back all post-election freebies (except for the football) while a new ministerial code of conduct is considered… which begs a number of questions, namely why it’s okay to accept gifts as Leader of the Opposition but not as PM. On top this, Labour peer Lord Alli is now being investigated by the House of Lords’ standards watchdog over allegedly failing to register interests.
Conflict in the Middle East escalated after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week. In retaliation, Hezbollah sponsor Iran fired around 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, to which PM Netanyahu responded that “Iran will pay a heavy price”. Israel has now launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon, with Lebanese officials saying more than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks, while around a million may now have been displaced.
The UK will return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, following the conclusion of two years of negotiations. The agreement will see Mauritius assume sovereignty over the Archipelago, but the strategically important UK-US military base on Diego Garcia will remain, with both Keir Starmer and the Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth committing to ensuring the long-term and secure operation of the base. The treaty will also see the UK providing a financial support package to Mauritius, including annual payments and infrastructure investment.
The Prime Minister travelled to Brussels to hold talks with EU leaders, as part of his drive to improve UK-EU relations. He met with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, where they committed to continue working closely to address shared challenges, like climate change, energy prices and migration. They will meet again this autumn and also agreed that a first EU-UK Summit should take place in early 2025.
The Government is set to launch the first carbon capture sites in the UK, pledging £22bn over 25 years. Sites in the North West and North East of England are set to benefit from major investments that are expected to create 4,000 jobs, support 50,000 jobs in the long-term, and bring in £8 billion in private investments.
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) achieved an historic electoral victory, as it secured 28.8% of the vote – nearly three points ahead of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP). Led by Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ claimed 57 seats in the 183-seat parliament, falling far short of a majority. Incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer from the ÖVP has previously ruled out the possibility of a coalition with Kickl, who has openly expressed ambitions to become Austria’s "volkskanzler" – the people's chancellor – a term associated with the Nazis who used it to describe Hitler.
Across the Atlantic, the first and only vice-presidential debate took place on Tuesday, offering a stark contrast to the more chaotic exchanges seen this election season. Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance had policy-driven discussions, tackling issues ranging from foreign policy to abortion. The debate’s standout moment came when the 2020 election was mentioned, as Vance sidestepped a direct question on whether Trump had lost the election. Walz took the moment to note the absence of Trump’s former vice-president, Mike Pence, from the stage – an absence he attributed to Pence’s role in certifying President Biden’s victory.
Kemi Badenoch was polling the most popular of the Conservative Party leadership contenders earlier this week, according to YouGov, with 27% of Party members selecting her as the best candidate for the job. Jenrick trailed just behind with 24% of voters backing him, whilst Cleverly and Tugendhat sat lower still on 16% each. According to YouGov 17% of voters were still unsure as to who would be the best. NB: this poll was undertaken BEFORE the 4 went head-to-head in their 20 min speeches at Conference on Wednesday.
The Government’s five national missions will not be delivered through adapting existing structures, the Institute for Government concluded in its recent report, adding that they will require more systematic changes. The report recommends 5 key steps the Government must take to give it the best chance of succeeding in its missions: to clarify its vision and direction; establish strong political leadership; develop a strategy which is underpinned by the money needed to deliver it; break down barriers for cross-Government work; and open up more partnerships with the private sector, civil society and wider public sector.
Sunak’s decision to depart D-Day early, ‘Gamblegate’, Liz Truss, PPE scandals, Partygate, and perceived incompetence were some of the main deciding factors leading to the Conservative Party’s landslide defeat at the election, Onward have argued in its report on why the party lost and its route back to gain votes. In the longer term, the report suggests that the 2019 Parliamentary Conservative Party was ideologically too broad (juggling Right Liberals, those economically right and socially left, and Traditional Left, those economically left and socially right), with the report encouraging the new leader to focus on ‘rebuilding the electoral coalition of segments that helped Thatcher, Major, Cameron and Johnson to victory.’
The collision of the anachronistic party conference with the social media age was always going to produce some interesting results. This year saw TikTok sponsor music events at both conferences, with predictably ridiculous results. Last week, it featured former Attorney General Emily Thornberry deliver a DJ set featuring pop star Charli XCX’s ‘365’, a song which explicitly describes taking cocaine. This week, attendees at Conservative conference were treated to a performance by none other than Peter Andre himself, during which he reportedly ‘gyrated’ (the Evening Standard’s words, not ours) alongside former Cabinet Minister Thérèse Coffey.
